Population Trends

Pandemic Slows Down Strong Population Growth Seen in Last Decade

Over the last decade, North Carolina added roughly 1.1 million people. This is the fourth largest numeric gain among states, adding more people than the states of Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia, combined. Only Texas (+4.2 million), Florida (+2.9 million), and California (+2.1 million) surpassed North Carolina’s population growth. This growth propelled North Carolina to the ninth most populous state in the nation in the past decade, with a population nearing 10.6 million in 2020. As a result, the state is expected to gain at least one additional congressional seat after the 2020 Census apportionment numbers are reported by April 30, 2021.

Robust Population Growth to Return

Even as the global pandemic has challenged the social fabric and economy of North Carolina, the state continues to grow, albeit at a slower rate. The State Demographer projects that the state’s population will increase by just 71,000 people from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, in comparison with the pre-pandemic trend of roughly 110,000. As vaccinations become more widespread and the economy recovers, population growth will likely recover to pre-pandemic levels. Over the 2021-2023 biennium, the State Demographer projects that 225,000 people will be added and North Carolina’s population will reach 10.9 million people by July 1, 2023 (an increase of 2.1%).

State Populations (US Census Bureau Estimate, July 1, 2020)

Rural Population Is Significant

Rural areas and small towns are an important part of North Carolina’s history and culture. By 2019, 40% of the state’s total population lived in a rural county (as defined by the North Carolina Rural Center) and 85% of North Carolina’s municipalities had populations of less than 10,000. That said, like the nation, most of North Carolina’s recent population growth has been in urban areas, with all urban and suburban counties growing between 2010 and 2019.

Population growth in North Carolina’s six urban counties accounted for 54% of the 951,000 people added between 2010

But Most Growth Is Occurring in Urban Counties

and 2019, with Mecklenburg and Wake Counties alone accounting for 38%. The 14 smaller urban regional city/suburban counties accounted for another 24% of population growth, with the remaining 80 rural counties accounting for 22% of the state’s population growth. Of the 32 counties that lost population between 2010 and 2019, all were classified as rural. Two rural counties— Onslow and Johnston—have grown enough to be re-classified as regional cities/suburban counties after the Census Bureau releases the 2020 Census results for substate areas in fall 2021. These same patterns of growth and decline are expected to continue over the course of the next decade.

County Population Change, 2010 - 2019

For More Information

With the exception of the state population comparison estimates, these estimates and projections were prepared by the State Demographer in the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management. For municipal populations estimates and detail county population estimates and projections, go to: demography.osbm.nc.gov